CBO's methods of analyzing single payer Medicare for All

Congressional Budget Office December 2020 How CBO Analyzes the Costs of Proposals for Single-Payer Health Care Systems That Are Based on Medicare’s Fee-for-Service Program By CBO’s Single-Payer Health Care Systems Team Abstract In this paper, CBO describes the methods it has developed to analyze the federal budgetary costs of proposals for single-payer health care systems that are based on the Medicare fee-for-service program. Five illustrative options show how differences in payment rates, cost sharing, and coverage of long-term services and supports under a single-payer system would affect the federal budget in 2030 and other outcomes. CBO’s projections of national health expenditures under current law are a key basis for the estimates. CBO projects that federal subsidies for health care in 2030 would increase by amounts ranging from $1.5 trillion to $3.0 trillion under the illustrative single-payer options—compared with federal subsidies in 2030 projected under current law—raising the share of spending on health care financed by the federal government. National health expenditures in 2030 would change by amounts ranging from a decrease of $0.7 trillion to an increase of $0.3 trillion. Lower payment rates for providers and reductions in payers’ administrative spending are the largest factors contributing to the decrease. Increased use of care is the largest factor contributing to the increase. Health insurance coverage would be nearly universal and out-of-pocket spending on health care would be lower—resulting in increased demand for health care—under the design specifications that CBO analyzed. The supply of health care would increase because of fewer restrictions on patients’ use of health care and on billing, less money and time spent by providers on administrative activities, and providers’ responses to increased demand. The amount of care used would rise, and in that sense, overall access to care would be greater. The increase in demand would exceed the increase in supply, resulting in greater unmet demand than the amount under current law, CBO projects. Those effects on overall access to care and unmet demand would occur simultaneously because people would use more care and would have used even more if it were supplied. The increase in unmet demand would correspond to increased congestion in the health care system—including delays and forgone care—particularly under scenarios with lower cost sharing and lower payment rates. Working Paper 2020-08 (208 pages): https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2020-12/56811-Single-Payer.pdf Blog by CBO Director Phillip Swagel: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56898 === Comment by Don McCanne As stated in the Abstract, "In this paper, CBO describes the methods it has developed to analyze the federal budgetary costs of proposals for single-payer health care systems that are based on the Medicare fee-for-service program." Since their reports are provided for Congress, the emphasis is on federal spending rather than on our total national health expenditures. There should be no surprise that they do predict an increase in federal spending since the design of a single payer system does precisely that; it shifts health care spending to the federal government since financing is primarily through the tax system. They do indicate that total national health expenditures would not change much when compared to our current spending, estimating somewhere between a decrease of $0.7 trillion to an increase of $0.3 trillion. They may have underestimated the savings in that, though they do credit the savings from the reduction of the administrative waste of the private insurers, they do not seem to quantify the very large savings from the reduction of the administrative burden placed on the health care delivery system, though they do acknowledge it as being a source of improved efficiency in the system. A recent systemic review by Christopher Cai, James Kahn and colleagues of twenty economic analyses of single payer indicate that they would all result in long-term net savings. In indicating that increased demand would produce "increased congestion" in the health care system, they seem to underestimate the ability of the system to self-correct by giving a lower priority to services that are not of much benefit, though queue management is still important in any system. Some of the experts consulted previously have been criticized for some of their assumptions in their single payer work, and others are experts in the aged and long term care and are not noted for their single payer work. There is also a notable absence of other academics who have long-standing reputations for their credible contributions to the single payer literature. In spite of that, this CBO report is still very useful in that it does what it says it does; it provides a description of CBO's methods of analyzing single payer and thus would be helpful in understanding future single payer reports from them.